Instincts and Anecdotes
For whatever reason, I have good instincts when it comes to the stock market, economy, and investments. I always look at the numbers, but even if the numbers are as good as can be, if my instincts tell me to stay away then that is what I will do.
I often watch TV and see an “expert” on the economy bombard the viewer with data points that back up whatever his or her forecast is. Lets take commercial real estate as an example. The trendy forecast lately seems to be that commercial real estate has bottomed or is in a nascent recovery already. I have seen this forecast made countless times over the last month or two. Had I been on the show when this “expert” gave this forecast I would have replied with this little story.
For the past 12 months I have been driving past a newly constructed strip mall. It looks very nice and has ZERO tenants. For the past 9 months, there has been a huge sign out front saying they will give you 12 months free rent if you sign a lease there. Today, there are ZERO tenants. They are literally giving away free retail space for a year and can’t get one tenant! This is a good neighborhood with good average income and a below average crime rate. Does this square with a commercial real estate recovery?
Inevitably, the “expert” would tell me that while there certainly are still some areas struggling, my ANECDOTE is just that and does not represent the overall commercial real estate market as the “data” clearly shows.
Let me tell ya something…If it ever comes down to my instincts and anecdotes vs. “expert” data or government (BLS) statistics; I’ll take my instincts and anecdotes EVERY SINGLE TIME.
Don’t be afraid to trust your instincts, especially when you have the track record to back it up.
(By the way, be on the lookout for the possibility of a LUDICROUS seasonal adjustment to the unemployment report upcoming. The government can and will make the jobless rate literally ANYTHING IT WANTS.)
Tags: Budget, Capitalist, Debt, Deficit, Economy, Government, Inflation, Stimulus, Taxes, Unemployment